A Dormant Market Awakens: Japan’s Casino Ambitions Resurface
After years of stagnation, Japan’s integrated resort (IR) initiative may be gaining momentum once more. Local reports suggest that the Japan Casino Regulatory Commission is planning to restart the bidding process for the country’s two remaining IR licenses before the end of 2025.
From Billion-Dollar Dreams to Pandemic Paralysis
When Japan first legalized integrated casino resorts in 2018, analysts estimated a potential annual GGR of $40 billion. Optimism ran high. But the Covid-19 pandemic, combined with Japan’s strict regulatory framework and a slow, complex licensing process, cooled interest among international operators.
MGM Osaka Sets the Stage
Of the three licenses originally on offer, only one was awarded in 2023—to MGM Resorts and Japanese conglomerate Orix. Their $8.9 billion development on Osaka’s Yumeshima Island broke ground earlier this year and is scheduled to open in 2030.
The resort will feature three hotels with a total of 2,500 rooms, a shopping mall, a luxury spa, a 3,000-seat theater, and over 14 dining options. Though the casino itself occupies just 3% of the total footprint, it will still house 6,400 slot machines and 470 table games on a 69,700-square-meter floor.
New Leadership Signals Change
Momentum returned in late 2024 when Japan’s Diet approved a new set of commissioners for the Casino Regulatory Commission. Takafumi Sato, a former prosecutor instrumental in designing the IR regulatory framework, was appointed chairman. He was joined by tax expert Junichi Kakimizu and returning psychiatrist Michiko Watari, among others.
Which Regions Are Still Interested?
While major players like Las Vegas Sands (2020), Wynn Resorts, and Melco (2021) exited Japan’s bidding race due to political and regulatory concerns, interest is reportedly resurfacing. A government survey cited by the Hokkaido Shimbun notes “several prefectures, including Hokkaido, have expressed interest.”
Hokkaido once attracted proposals from Hard Rock International and Mohegan Gaming, while Tokyo—with its 37 million residents and 20 million international visitors in 2023—is viewed as a crown jewel opportunity.
All Eyes on Osaka
According to Steve Gallaway of Global Market Advisors, “Investor appetite will hinge on how well MGM Osaka performs.” If the project proves successful, it could serve as a template and trigger further development across Japan.
Gaming analyst Howard Jay Klein described the Osaka IR as “the first true mega city-within-a-city resort,” a modern answer to the rising tide of online gambling.
MGM: A Win-Win for Everyone
Speaking at G2E Asia in Macau, MGM’s President of Global Development Ed Bowers said the Osaka IR is expected to generate $1.1 billion annually in economic impact for the prefecture, through taxes and entrance fees. On a national scale, it could contribute over $750 million to government revenues.
Klein also notes that MGM Osaka will enjoy a “first mover advantage” for at least five years post-launch, effectively until 2035. “Osaka’s position is pure gold,” he said.
2025: The Year of Japan’s Casino Comeback?
As the MGM Osaka project takes shape and new regulatory leadership steers policy, international eyes are once again turning toward Japan. Should Osaka deliver on expectations, the door may open for Tokyo, Hokkaido, and others to enter the game.
2025 may not just be the year the IR bidding resumes—it could be the beginning of Japan’s second act in the global casino stage.
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