X Partners with Polymarket: A Strategic Shift Amid Musk–Trump Clash?

Elon Musk’s X Selects Polymarket as Official Prediction Market Partner

X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, has officially partnered with blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket. The collaboration aims to integrate real-time data from X with Polymarket’s decentralized forecasting tools, opening new ground in predictive analytics and social media interactivity.

This announcement comes just weeks after a previously declared collaboration between X and Kalshi was abruptly withdrawn. The move raises both strategic and political questions, particularly in the context of Elon Musk’s ongoing feud with former President Donald Trump.

New Product Vision: X + Polymarket + Grok

As part of the deal, Polymarket and X plan to co-develop a product that blends X’s real-time social data, Grok’s AI-powered analysis, and Polymarket’s on-chain prediction data. The goal? To offer “contextualized and data-driven” insights across topics like politics, sports, and crypto markets in real time.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan stated, “By combining Grok’s intelligence, X’s immediacy, and our market-validated probabilities, we can deliver unique forecasting tools to millions of users around the world.”

Legal Ambiguity in the U.S.: A CFTC History

Polymarket is not registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and, as part of a 2022 settlement, agreed to geo-block U.S. users. Since then, the platform has focused on global markets—and with great success. During the 2024 U.S. elections, Polymarket saw billions in trading volume, including one French bettor who reportedly won $85 million on a Trump victory.

Despite its growth, the platform has faced criticism over certain controversial markets—such as predictions on California wildfires or the timing of Pope Francis’s death—and the use of cryptocurrency raises concerns over KYC and AML compliance.

Kalshi’s Exit and the Trump Connection

Before the Polymarket deal, X was poised to partner with regulated U.S. prediction exchange Kalshi. That announcement, made on May 20, was rolled back the same day without explanation. Kalshi, notably, is politically connected—Donald Trump Jr. joined the company as a strategic advisor in January 2025 and has publicly praised its use during election night.

This swift reversal now appears less coincidental and more a reflection of deeper political undercurrents, particularly given the deteriorating relationship between Musk and Trump.

Musk vs. Trump: Public Feud Reaches New Heights

In the same week as the Polymarket announcement, Musk and Trump clashed publicly over a Republican spending bill, trading barbs on their respective social platforms—X and Truth Social.

Musk claimed that Trump “would not have won the presidency without my financial support,” prompting Trump to threaten cutting off all government subsidies to Musk-related companies. Then, Musk escalated further:

Time to drop the really big bomb:
@realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public.
Have a nice day, DJT!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk), June 5, 2025

This explosive statement sent shockwaves across both political and tech communities, with many speculating that the Polymarket deal is not just about innovation—but also retaliation.

What’s Next for Prediction Markets?

X’s move positions it beyond a social platform—potentially into a realm where public discourse directly powers financialized forecasting. While the fusion of prediction markets with real-time social data is groundbreaking, legal ambiguity, ethical criticism, and political tension still loom large.

As Polymarket and X move forward, eyes will be on Kalshi’s response, regulatory pushback, and whether predictive markets become a mainstream tool—or a new battleground for political power plays.